Yet another storm system will spread another band of clouds across the area tonight.  Light rain is possible late tonight, but rain is much more likely during the day Tuesday as a strong cold front marches eastward across the southern states.  It will turn sharply colder behind the front with lows falling to the 20’s by Tuesday night with highs in the 40’s on Wednesday, but gusty northwest winds will make wind chill a factor, especially Tuesday night into Wednesday. 

But that’s only part of the story in this very active weather week ahead.

 Computer model guidance continues to indicate the possibility of snow for parts of Alabama by late Thursday night and into Friday.  An area of low pressure will surge out of the Gulf, bringing moisture up and over the top of a cold airmass in place.  It’s far too early to pinpoint who might get snow, but the potential exists for accumulating snow in parts of Alabama late this week.  Stay tuned.

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With last week’s groundhog now in hiding and postponing those plans for an early spring, we have some winter weather to deal with over the coming week or two.

Let’s start with the temperatures.  In brief, the pattern of upper level winds has taken on what’s often called a “blocking” configuration over the high latitudes, which oftern leads to cold air masses building in those latitudes and finding the means to drive south, leaving a large part of the country colder than normal.  That would include the Southeast in this case, so much so that you can take above normal temperatures off the board for the foreseeable future.  Though we’re not looking at any record breaking cold for now, we should be experiencing consistently chilly weather.

For the system coming through on Tuesday, though, our temperatures will at least be mild enough to give our area nothing but the usual cold rain.  Farther north and deeper into the arctic air, they’ll be dealing with the second of back-to-back snowstorms in some areas.

The system approaching on Friday could be a bit more interesting for us.  More than one forecast model shows a surface low crossing the northern Gulf through north Florida, almost a classic scenario for a snow event in Alabama and Georgia.  Since that lies four days down the road, the models could change wildly on their depiction of this storm, with a whole gamut of possibilities out there that could take forecasters several days to pin down.  At this point, snow cannot be ruled out for any of WTVM’s area on Friday, so keep an eye on this blog and later forecasts.  Even a week into February, the winter fun and games may be just beginning,

kschmitz@wtvm.com

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If the snow across North Alabama this morning was a suprise to you it was a suprise to us as well. While we expected a little snow or sleet to fall this morning, 5″ of the stuff was the farthest thing from our minds. This is a great example of how forecasting the weather is not an exact science. The snow fell in a narrow band about 30 miles wide across portions of north Alabama and southern Tennesse. With the exception of Colbert County and Lawrence County, if you lived south of the Tennessee River you didn’t see anything at all. The map below shows this narrow swath of snow. Rain is on the way tonight, but more wintry precipitation could fall by the end of the week. Be sure to check out all the snow pictures from this morning from our viewers at WAFF.com.

Jeff Castle
WAFF 48 Storm Team

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It’s not a “Rainy Day On Monday” but it’s a mostly cloudy one.  Some showers made it into the northern tier of counties this morning, but most of us won’t see rainfall until after the midnight hour tonight.  Expect mostly cloudy skies for today.  Tuesday’s rain should be over by about noon followed by decreasing clouds.  Mostly clear to partly cloudy and cool for Wednesday and Thursday.  On Friday we have a 30-percent chance of precipitation. Depending on this system’s arrival time, we could either see some snow, some rain or a rain/snow mixture.  Partly cloudy skies are expected for the weekend.

Mickey Ferguson, FOX6 Weather

www.myfoxstorm.com
www.myfoxtracker.com

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A lot to do and not much time on my hands, so we’ll get right to it.

There is the potential for a winter storm to impact parts of Alabama late this week.  There is some chance that this winter storm could bring significant accumulation of snow to parts of our state.

First Things First… Between now and Thursday night, we have several other weather issues to discuss.  Today looks great.  Rain pushes in late tonight and into tomorrow, and the rain will continue through a big chunk of your Tuesday. 

Colder air arrives Wednesday and Thursday, with highs in the upper 40s and lows in the upper 20s.

Then, It Gets Interesting… The GFS (and to varying extent, most of our computer model guidance agrees that a surface low will develop in the northern Gulf of Mexico late Thursday.

That system will spread moisture over the state after midnight Thursday night and into Friday morning.  With cold air in place and some evaporative cooling processes in play, the air will likely be cold enough for snow in some parts of Alabama.

Here is the computer model output for Friday morning, courtesy of the 6z (overnight) run of the GFS.  This is the surface output – note the location of the solid blue line.  North of that line, the surface temp is 32F or below:

Note the precip that has fallen into Mississippi.  So, at face value, whatever is falling Friday morning for much of Alabama would be wintry precipitation.  Again, IF the model is correct, this would include even central and southern parts of the state.

 Bottom Line…  Still far too early to really take a stab at specifics.  However, there is some evidence to support the possibility of wintry weather in Alabama Thursday night and into Friday morning.  There is the potential for 2″ of snow or more SOMEWHERE in Alabama out of this system – could be Huntsville, could be Andalusia, could be anywhere in between.

We’ll continue to keep an eye on this one.

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If you watched my forecast last Friday, I mentioned the possibility of snow or at least a wintry mix late week.  The forecast models were hinting the possibility.  Now, it’s a bit more of a hint.  The GFS is now showing a low forming in the Gulf of Mexico.  These lows give us a classic overrunning type setup and when combined with Arctic air – SNOW.  I know it’s only Sunday night and we’ll have to watch for a few more model runs.  The GFS tends to be a little too moist when looking this far out.  The exact track of the low will play a huge role in when/how much/where/if snow forms.  As you can tell, there are some unanswered questions!  I’m attaching the model output from the 12z GFS.   The first image shows all critical thickness lines  supporting snowfall all the way to Montgomery.   The second image shows precipitation and the 540 thickness line (notice to the south of Bimingham by noon Friday).  The 540 thickness line is sometimes called the rain/snow line.

At this point, I’d stay close to the forecast over the next several days.   Based on today’s data – we would see measurable snowfall Friday.   We all know these forecasts tend to be highly inaccurate especially this far out.

James-Paul Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
james.dice@wbrc.com

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Low clouds across the area this morning should begin to burn off by 9am, and we should be under significant sunshine by the noon hour; we are going to need it, because brisk north winds will continue to transport cold air into the state today. Our highs should top out in the mid to upper 40s today, with overnight lows from 27 to 31. A nice rebound temperature-wise on Monday, with highs climbing into the upper 50 under partly cloudy skies, with clouds increasing in the evening. Rain sets back in early Tuesday, but this next system is a relatively quick mover, and the rain should end by early evening.

Another cold shot of air returns after the rain ends on Tuesday, and this will get the stage for forecast headaches for the rest of the week. After a dry day on Wednesday, the computer models are, almost uniformly, creating a coastal low along the Gulf of Mexico Thursday into Friday. With cold air already in place across the state, we are setting up for what looks like one of the classical winter weather setups for Alabama; overrunning. If our computer model data is correct, this would begin as some slight snow Thursday night, changing over to a rain-snow mix during the day on Friday. I am quite sure that the models are going to change somewhat over the next few days, but for now we are going to call for mixed precipitation Thursday and Friday, and we will be fine-tuning that forecast as we get closer to the end of next week.

Jason Kelley
Fox 6 Meteorologist
jkelley@wbrc.com

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The same powerful storm that brought 2-to-3 inches of rain to much of our area on Friday and dumped record snowfall on the mid-Atlantic continued on Saturday to generate windy conditions for us even as it departed off the East Coast.  The steep pressure gradient between that exiting low-pressure area and the incoming high-pressure resulted in winds gusting above 30 mph here in Alabama.  It’s cold and dry air that’s invading the Southeast, so look for the clouds to slowly diminish overnight and through the day on Sunday.

By Monday we should find the wind flowing in from the Gulf of Mexico, setting us up for a rainy Tuesday when a cold front will move through.  The leading edge of an arctic air mass, the cold front will likely drop us below freezing on Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

With rivers, lakes and streams full to the brim, we don’t need more rain at this point.  The ground is saturated and many yards will have standing water again when the wet weather moves in from the Gulf.  Right now it appears that rainfall amounts of up to one inch are possible.  It’s also possible that we’ll see the next round of precip as soon as Thursday night.  However, computer models right now are not very clear or consistent in defining what’s coming our way.

–Dan Atkinson, Doppler 12 StormVision Meteorologist

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Our cold, wet winter continues, but thankfully not as cold and wet here today as what they are seeing in the northeast, which is getting dumped on with snow this weekend. That same system is going to bring in cool air across the state today, making it a raw, gray, cold day. Expect to see patches of drizzle today, but not much in the way of significant rain. Highs today will struggle through the low 40s, and an wind advisory is in effect today because of NW winds at 15-20 mph. We are going to have a couple of rainmakers to deal with this week; after some sun on Sunday and Monday, clouds return with rain chances a good bet on Tuesday statewide. Another system at the end of the week looks like a very cold rain at this point, but with the colder air just to our north it will bear watching.

Jason Kelley
Fox 6 Meteorologist
jkelley@wbrc.com

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After the latest in a series of soakers, we could use some dry weather.  We’ll get it – but for only a few days.  The overall pattern is one that tends toward storminess in the Southeast states as the southern branch of the jet stream remains vigorous. This medium range setup looks especially interesting, though, as there will be cold air masses involved.  Combine the two, and the threat of winter weather in the South is certainly on the table over the next week or two.

Super Bowl weekend will start out cloudy and blustery, but dry. Drier air will move in for Sunday and should be able to break the persistent low stratus clouds that will hang over most of Georgia and Alabama  on Saturday.  By Monday, clouds will already start moving back in, setting us up for another rain system Tuesday, most likely on a smaller scale and with less impact than the last one.  As that system leaves, there are indications we may get a taste of arctic air for a few days – nothing like early January but enough to keep our temperatures below normal.  And there’s no big warmup anywhere in sight right now for the nation east of the Plains.

Weather for the Super Bowl: Fair skies with temperatures in the 60s and no threat of rain in Miami.  Great for football!

kschmitz@wtvm.com

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