AM Forecast Update

If we posted weather signs on the roadways, today’s would read “Caution Hot Days Ahead”.  We have several days (Saturday through next Thursday) where the “feels like” temperatures are expected to be in the 108-110 range.  I’m trying to figure out what to do with my kids this weekend.  Maybe the swimming pool or the lake, water-balloon fights, squirt guns, slip-n-slides, water wiggles?  You get the idea.  Even with all the water fun though, it’s important to make sure you and your family members are not getting over-heated.  Be sure and have plenty of drinks on hand to keep them hydrated.  Only minimal chances of rain are anticipated over the next 7-days.  Chat with ya next week.

Mickey Ferguson, FOX6 Weather

Mickey 7-day

Record streak of warm lows

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The hot summer of 2010 continues and now some records are starting to be set. While we’ve not been breaking many individual record temperatures, the hot weather has been pretty much constant all summer. The afternoons have been very hot and the A/C hasn’t even been able to get a break a night either. As of today we have seen 25 straight days where the overnight low was 70 or higher. That is a record stretch of nights that warm. The old record was 23 consective days set back in Jun/Jul 1966. With more warm nights in the forecast that streak looks to continue.

Jeff Castle
WAFF 48 Storm Team

Watching Two Areas…

Tropical Mischief?  Two zones of interest in the tropics this morning – the good news – both are far from land, and conditions over both of these systems are only marginally favorable for development at the current time.
Here’s the latest NHC update:
two_atl
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 30 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

1. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE…10 PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 TO 20
MPH.

2. A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS
SHOWING NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER…A TROPICAL
WAVE THAT JUST MOVED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA IS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS…AND THESE TWO SYSTEMS COULD
BEGIN TO INTERACT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE…20
PERCENT…OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PM Forecast Update

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to track mainly west of I-65 this evening.  The primary threat will be cloud to ground lightning.  Expect temperatures in the mid 70s during the overnight under a partly cloudy sky.  The temperatures just keep on climbing over the next several days with the heat index well over 100 degrees.  Rain chances will remain low through the weekend.  It appears next week will be mainly dry and hot.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated storms early. Low 76. Winds NW 3-5.
Tomorrow: Partly sunny with a few isolated storms. High 98. Heat index 105+. Winds NW 5-10.  

Have a great evening!

James-Paul Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
james.dice@wbrc.com

Tropical Weather Outlook

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 29 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

1. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH.   LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE…10 PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE…20 PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

two_atl

Medium Drought Status in Some Areas

Parts of east central Alabama have been elevated to a Stage 2 Medium drought status in the latest Drought Monitor.  Nearly 60% of the state is in a stage one status.

DROUGHT copy

The debate continues…

SOURCE: USA TODAY – By Doyle Rice

Report: 2000s were warmest decade on record, global warming ‘undeniable’

Excellent timing, NOAA.

As the nation swelters through what will likely be one of the hottest months in U.S. history, a new report released today by federal government scientists says that the decade from 2000-2009 was the Earth’s warmest on record.

Global weather records go back to 1880.

The new climate report, entitled the 2009 State of the Climate, also states that “global warming is undeniable.”

Each of the last three decades has been much warmer than the decade before, it reports. At the time, the 1980 was the hottest decade on record. In the 1990s, every year was warmer than the average of the previous decade. And the 2000s were warmer still.

 Specifically, the decade of the 2000s had a surface global temperature that was 0.96°F above the long-term (20th century) average. This shattered the 1990s value of 0.65°F above average, according to Thomas C. Patterson, chief scientist at the National Climatic Data Center. Read full article here

Afternoon Weather Update

It looks like thunderstorms will continue to drift from north to south this afternoon – mainly west of I-65.  A few storms may be strong through the early evening.  The main threat will be gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall.  
Thunderstorms will track southward toward to I-20 by 5pm.  We’ll keep you updated through the afternoon.

No Record This Year

It’s a record we’d rather not break – the hottest month in Columbus weather history – and it looks like we won’t quite make it this July.

After 28 days, we have averaged 84.6º, which is already enough to make it the 4th hottest July ever.  The hottest Julys (and months) ever averaged 85.8º in both 1993 and 1986.  However, running a few numbers and doing a little mathematical analysis, we would have to average 97.2º over the final three days to break the all-time mark.  That, of course, would be unrealistic.

It is almost certain, though, we will wind up this July ranking third all-time, passing July 1983 which averaged 85.1º.  Based on the forecast through Saturday, we should be able to exceed that figure without too much trouble.

Had we not experienced that little cool spell on July 3-4, when lows dropped into the 60s and highs stayed in the 80s, the record might have been achievable.

Looking ahead to August, we don’t see much relief coming for the first week.  As we get later into August and the tropics start to heat up, it could change the picture for us either directly or indirectly by altering the pattern.  I’ll predict August will not be as hot as July this year.  About two-thirds (66%) of the summers in Columbus feature a warmer July than August, and it’s hard to imagine our weather getting any hotter than it’s been for the past few weeks.

Our best hope in the near term may be increased coverage of afternoon thundershowers that could help to break the late-day heat in areas that see rain.

kschmitz@wtvm.com

World Record Hailstone!

record_hailstone

 

A small South Dakota town is being recognized for a big find after last Friday’s storms.

It was Friday afternoon when a line of thunderstorms fired up in central South Dakota. High winds, heavy rains and even a possible tornado rolled through the town of Vivian. But now days later, a hailstone picked up just moments after the storm is getting worldwide attention.

The damage is proof that it wasn’t a typical South Dakota thunderstorm. Holes were punched through the top of buildings, and Les Scott will never forget what it sounded like.

“A guy throwing bricks at the house and many of them and it was scary,” Scott said.

Scott watched as massive hailstones pummeled the ground. Tuesday, the dents in the ground are still visible, some as large and deep as coffee cans. But when the hail stopped, a certain stone grabbed his attention.

“I just happened to see this one fall and the only reason I went out and got it is because it has all these fingers sticking out of it and I thought, ‘Oh, that’s weird.’  So I thought I’d go get that one,” Scott said.

Scott originally wanted to make a daiquiri out of the hail, but decided to contact the National Weather Service instead. Tuesday, they were in Vivian. They carefully took the stone from the freezer and placed it in a cooler with dry ice. The next stop was at the post office where the hail had a date with the federally certified scale. Moments later, the hailstone weighed in at 1.9375 pounds.

 

“Officially, where records have been kept, this will be the U.S. record and world record for weight. So very impressive,” Mike Fowle of the National Weather Service said.

But the inspection of the new world record hail wasn’t done there. To ensure that the hailstone didn’t melt, it was then measured while inside a freezer at a local convenience store.

The hailstone is down to 17 inches around, but was measured just a few days ago at 18 and a half inches. That is another world record number.

“I didn’t think it was near that, but I’m glad I got it I guess. I’m just sad about the town of Vivian. I hope the insurance people help them out as much as they can because they need it,” Scott said.

As impressive as the size and weight are, it may have topped two pounds when it fell from the sky. While Scott placed it in the freezer, the power was out for six hours following the storm, and it likely melted a bit in that time.