WSFA 12 Weather Blog

Ida will need to be monitored over the next few days as it moves toward the Gulf of  Mexico.  The waters in the Gulf are realtively cool  an epected wind shear may proveto be a rather hostile envrioment for Ida.  Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009
1000 AM EST FRI NOV 06 2009

...IDA MOVING OVER EASTERN HONDURAS...

AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM
THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER TO LIMON.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR ABOUT
55 MILES... 85 KM...WEST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST EXPECTED TOMORROW.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IDA SHOULD MOVE ACROSS EASTERN HONDURAS TODAY
AND EMERGE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY...BUT SOME
RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER.  

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

THE RAINFALL THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH IDA IS DIMINISHING OVER EASTERN
NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS.  IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER EASTERN HONDURAS
WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.  THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH IDEA MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SATURDAY.  

...SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.0N 84.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 PM EST.

Tonight will be our coldest night of the week with temperatures dropping to the upper 30s over night. High pressure will be just to the north of Alabama tomorrow morning during sunrise, combined with calm winds and clear skies, this calls for a chilly night!

Any worries of frost? Not for Central Alabama, the best chance for frost will be north of Clanton.

However, this is not the coldest night of the season. We dropped down to 35 degrees back on October 19th.

Ida has weakened to a Tropical Storm this afternoon, but even though it is weakening now is still bears close monitoring over the next few days.

Currently, Ida is bringing winds and rain to parts of Nicaragua in Central America. Those sustained winds are currently 65 miles per hour and some further weakening is expected as the center of the storm is over land at the moment. While it is nearly stationary at this time, Ida will begin to move towards the north.

By Monday, it could be on its way to the Gulf of Mexico and thus bears monitoring. It will move into warm water initially in the Caribbean, where temperatures are currently in the 80s during the peak heating of the afternoon. However, the temperatures near the Alabama and Florida coastlines are in the 60s, meaning the storm would likely weaken as it moves over that cooler water.

In fact, as you can see from the projected intensity computer models above, it will likely remain a Tropical Storm or become a minimal hurricane at best. Regardless, Ida should be monitored closely into next week, especially for interests near the Gulf Coast.

HURRICANE IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
700 AM EST THU NOV 05 2009

…IDA BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE COAST OF NICARAGUA…

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT IDA HAS STRENGTHENED TO A
HURRICANE.

AT 700 AM…1200 UTC…THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS
NORTHWARD TO PUERTO CABEZAS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM NORTH OF PUERTO CABEZAS TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA
BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NICARAGUA/COSTA
RICA BORDER NORTHWARD TO BLUEFIELDS AND FROM NORTH OF PUERTO
CABEZAS TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 700 AM EST…1200 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 83.4 WEST OR ABOUT 60
MILES…100 KM…NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA AND ABOUT
85 MILES…135 KM…SOUTH OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH…11 KM/HR…AND A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK…IDA WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA THIS MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IDA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS IDA MOVES INLAND OVER
NICARAGUA TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES…85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB…29.15 INCHES.

IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES OVER THE ISLANDS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUD SLIDES.

A STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA…WITH LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IDA MAKES LANDFALL. WATER LEVELS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
LATER TODAY.

…SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…12.8N 83.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…987 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 AM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BROWN/BLAKE

Tropical Depression 11 is now Tropical Storm Ida. Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

…THE NINTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS…HEADED TOWARD
NICARAGUA….

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE EASTERN
COAST OF NICARAGUA AND FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND
PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

AT 400 PM EST…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST OR ABOUT 75
MILES…120 KM…WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT 75
MILES…120 KM…EAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH…9 KM/HR.  A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK…IDA
SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA OVERNIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH…95 KM/HR…
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES…75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE IS 996 MB…29.41 INCHES.

Crisp and clear fall weather should be perfect for stargazers to see not one, but two opportunities to see the International Space Station fly over across Alabama over the next few days. To the naked eye, it will look like a bright star sweeping across the sky from southwest to northeast.

The first opportunity will be as it enters the shadow of the Earth directly overhead on November 6th at 6:02pm Central Time.

The second opportunity comes just two days later, on Sunday the 8th at 5:12pm Central as it remains visible from horizon to horizon.

After not having an active storm since October the 10th, the Atlantic Ocean has come alive once more with the all new Tropical Depression Eleven. Air Force Hurricane Hunters are en route to the storm which currently has sustained winds near 35 miles per hour.

Current satellite imagery shows an increasingly organized storm.

The storm is expected to reach Tropical Storm strength in the next twenty-four hours, in which case it would become Tropical Storm Ida. It is currently near San Andres Island and Nicaragua, with current movement to the West/Northwest at 7 miles per hour.

Could this affect weather across the Southeastern United States and Alabama? Hard to say at this time, but some of the recent computer models do turn it northward into the Gulf of Mexico as a strengthening Tropical Storm. It will definitely need to monitored closely over the next few days.

The computer models can be seen above. As you can see, most of them take it northward eventually.

The models predicting how intense this storm will be show great consensus that it will be a Tropical Storm.

Plenty of Sun: A wonderful string of beautiful November days will continue across Alabama today, with afternoon highs hitting the middle to upper 70s under a mostly sunny sky. The great weather will stick around through the end of the work week and right into the weekend.

Dry Weather… Rain chances will remain close to zero through the end of the weekend. However, a weak system will approach our state from the west by early next week, and it could bring us a chance of some rain.

Cool Mornings: A reinforcement of the cool air arrives tomorrow in the form of a cold front. While this front will not bring us any rain, you’ll notice a little more wind tomorrow, and temperatures will be 5-8 degrees cooler. Tomorrow night will be the coldest of the week, with readings falling into the upper 30s and lower 40s. There is some chance of some scattered frost in the far northern reaches of our area on Friday morning.

High pressure has taken control of our weather pattern and in return…no complaints as far as blue skies and 70 degree temperatures. So how long is this going to last? Well, surprisingly for a while. A few very weak, dry fronts will sweep through before high pressure quickly returns in their wake.  With that said, any change day to day will be negligible and unnoticeable. Temperatures are expected to be quite seasonal with high in the mid 70s and cool nights in the mid 40s with our coldest morning on Friday.

 September and October – typically drier months – were soakers. Still, the Montgomery airport’s official rain record doesn’t even truly reflect how much rain has fallen across the state in between reporting sites.

Well, November has arrived and we typically are gearing up for potent storm system and many fronts sweeping across the area.  However, this week, we have lucked out. High pressure will keep us rain free for at least another week. At this time the GFS model is showing rain chances picking up Wednesday of next week.  Timing of storm systems often changes from model run to model run during the fall months so “Wednesday rain” is simply a time frame.

In the mean time, enjoy the nice weather while we meteorologists try to figure out what to say about the weather for 3 minutes when there is in fact….no weather.

Typically, for Central and Southern Alabama, September and October are dry and clear, but instead we saw two wet and stormy months. In September, Montgomery had 6.65″ inches and in October we saw 5.16″ inches. The normal totals for September and October are 4.05″ and 3.23″ respectively. On the flipside, November is a month known for wet and stormy conditions, but, we have seen no rain so far and it looks as if we will be in for an extended dry and cool period in the days ahead.

Highs and lows will remain fairly consistent over the next few days with highs in the low 70s and lows in the 40s. A few clouds may move in later on, especially in the Southeastern counties, but we don’t expect any organized potential for rain over the next few days.

Meanwhile, while the weather locally has been unusually active for the past two months, the Atlantic Ocean in regards to tropical weather has been unusually quiet. In fact, this season, which has only seen two hurricanes (Bill and Fred) and six tropical storms, is the slowest since 1997. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two systems currently, but each of them have a low probabilty of development over the next 48 hours. You can see them in the image below: