WSFA 12 Weather Blog

North Alabama Snow:  Definitely a fun, wintry scene across north Alabama yesterday, as light snow fell on that part of the state.   Here’s a fantastic photo:

 Another Cool Day… Temperatures today will be slightly warmer, as most of us will top out in the lower 50s.  However, you’ll notice a big decrease in wind, and a big increase in the amount of sunshine.  So, it will FEEL a good bit warmer today.

FUN Weather Link:  Courtesy of the NWS Office in El Paso, TX….Have you ever wanted to sound like a weather forecaster…well now you can.  Just pick a three digit number, click on convert and out will pop a fictitious weather term that will sound cool and will impress your friends.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/epz/wxcalc/weathertermcalc.shtml

Rainy Thursday?  Our computer models continue to indicate a pretty decent shot of showers Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.  No severe weather issues, and rainfall amounts should stay under one inch (most places in the tenth to quarter of an inch range).

Cool and dry weather continues into the weekend.

* First Things First… I certainly hope you and your family have had a wonderful Thanksgiving.  I worked Thursday and am working today, but, in this economic climate, I’m very thankful to have a job.  That it’s a job I very much enjoy and a job where I work with some great folks is just an added bonus.  For you shoppers out there, I hope the bargains were plentiful and the trip was fun.

* Iron Bowl… Yep, it’s that time.  Hard to believe - this year has truly flown by.  After a thorough review of the 12z (Morning) computer models, confidence is growing that the game should be, for the most part, dry.  Perhaps a sprinkle early in the first half, but most of the game should feature cloudy skies and temps in the 50s.  This will still be fairly close, and if all of our models are off, there could be a lingering shower at the game.  I wouldn’t count on it, but I would pack the rain gear, just in case.

But, there will certainly be plenty of rain on Saturday morning, so the field and bleachers will be wet.  Plan for that.

* Frigid Start to December: Much, much colder air slams into Alabama Sunday and especially Monday.  High temperatures around here Sunday will top out only in the 50s, and Monday will be a struggle to reach 50, with a stiff north wind.

And yes, there could be some snow flakes falling as far south as Birmingham - but no big travel headaches anywhere in Alabama.

That being said, I do believe there is the potential for a dusting to a half-inch of snow in the higher elevations of northeast Alabama, north of a line from Huntsville to Cullman to Gadsden.  Again, no travel problems, as anything that did stick would do so only in grassy areas on on the car/roof tops.

December will be a fun month for weather forecasters.

Hope you and yours have a wonderful weekend!

Check out this new output from the afternoon run of the NAM (one of our major American forecast models).  Talk about a close call for the Iron Bowl - this shows the amount of rain forecast to fall between noon and 6pm Saturday:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_pcp_054l.gif

Bottom line…Bring the rain gear if you’re heading to Tuscaloosa for the game.

BIG SHOUT OUT: A big thanks to the “Tuskegee Posse”, our friends with the Tuskegee Fun Express (a group of friends threw in together and bought a bus…they travel in their bus to every Tuskegee game, home and away - great fans!).

After participating in the Turkey Day Classic parade this morning, they showed the Today in Alabama team some great hospitality and a wonderful warm meal.  Thanks!

* Huh?  Are You Serious? That was my reaction upon seeing this press release in my e-mail inbox this afternoon.  Yes, in the name of full disclosure, be aware that this is a press release, not a news article.  So, know up front that my remarks are in response to the idea stated in the release; I am not speaking to the veracity of the plan.

Seems like some of our friends at the EPA are considering passing a “greenhouse gas emissions” fee on farmers.

Here’s the part that made me scratch my head (emphasis is mine):

MONTGOMERY – Agriculture & Industries Commissioner Ron Sparks expressed alarm at the livestock tax proposed by the Environmental Protection Agency.  The tax would affect any farm or ranch with more than 25 dairy cows, 50 beef cattle or 200 hogs by requiring permit fees based on tonnage of greenhouse gas emissions, which is based on emitting 100 tons or more of carbon per year.  According to the American Farm Bureau, the fee and/or tax would result in about $175 per dairy cow, $87.50 per head of beef cattle, and $20 for each hog annually.

Hogwash.

So, let me get this right.  In a country where people are under financial burdens the likes of which we’ve not seen in decades, the EPA is working to raise the price of…FOOD?!

In a country where everything we NEED goes UP in price and everything we OWN goes DOWN in value, the EPA is going to raise the price of food?  Because of a threat that, frankly, is on very shaky ground from a scientific standpoint?  Are you joking?

According to a recent report, the Earth’s mean temperature has risen only 0.21 degrees since 1930.  Also, during five of the past seven decades, average U.S. temperatures have decreased.  That includes the current decade.  Here’s another interesting blog post on the actual temperature data:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/02/19/january-2008-4-sources-say-globally-cooler-in-the-past-12-months/

Another thing you’ll hear from the global warming propagandists is that “the debate is over” and that the “science is settled.”  True scientists know that the debate is almost never over in an issue as difficult to measure, let alone predict, as global climate.  In fact, 31,000 scientists have signed the Global Warming Petition Project, which says only that man’s impact on climate change can’t be reasonably proven.

So, we have an Earth that is arguably getting very slightly warmer.  The cause of that warming cannot be reasonably proven.  But, the EPA, just in case, is working to raise our food prices through the roof by passing emissions taxes on farmers.  Unbelievable.

To clarify, I am a conservationist.  Those who know me well know that I love the outdoors; I have hiked in both the Smoky and Rocky Mountain National Parks.  I enjoy spending time at our very underrated state parks here in Alabama; I fish, I camp.  I’m not in favor of us destroying our environment, so don’t misunderstand me.

But raising the price of food via a greenhouse emissions fee on farmers to fight “global warming” is a complete farce and slap in the face to American taxpayers and farmers.

* Wanted to pass along a weather watcher report…

30 degrees this morning in Billingsley.  Yesterday’s rain (approx. 0.25″) froze in the rain gauge!

* Chilly stuff; I expect more of this tomorrow morning, as we should fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s.  31 is the forecast low for Montgomery, but the valleys of central Alabama will probably fall into the 26-30 range.

* Cool and dry weather headline the forecast through Thanksgiving Day - nice weather for the big Turkey Day Classic in Montgomery.  Kickoff is at 1pm, and we should see temps in the 60s throughout the game, with a few clouds.

* Friday will feature some changes.  The latest computer model guidance even tries to hint at bringing in some showers late Thursday, but for now, we’ll hold off the rain until Thursday night.  The rain will pick up a bit Thursday night and into Friday.  Beyond that, the pattern is very complex through the weekend, with a southwesterly flow aloft over Alabama, and the northern jet poking into the eastern U.S. as well.  This is called a split flow pattern, and it’s fun to watch, but not fun to predict.  We’ll leave rain chances in through the weekend.

* WINTER WEATHER FANS:  I’ve mentioned this a couple of times on this blog as well as on the air.  I think this could be your year - there’s very little actual science in that, it’s more of a hunch based on a few observations of the global pattern .  I’m not a huge fan of percentages, but I thought it might be interesting to put some percentages on some things happening this winter.  And, since I don’t like percentages or being overly vague, a simple “Yes or No” answer.  This is for fun only:

SNOW:
Accumulating Snow in Montgomery:  10%    (No)
3″+ Snow in Montgomery:                    5%    (No)

Accumulating Snow, Anywhere in the WSFA Area:  40%   (Yes)
3″ + Snow, WSFA Area:                                           15%   (No)

Accumulating Snow, Anywhere in Alabama:   80%     (Yes)
3″+ Snow, Alabama:                                       60%     (Yes)
6″+ Snow, Alabama:                                       30%     (No)

COLD
Montgomery Hits Single Digits:                     70%     (Yes)
Montgomery Hits 0:                                         2%     (No)

Birmingham Hits Single Digits:                      80%     (Yes)
Birmingham Hits 0:                                        30%     (Yes)

NOTES:
Again, these are just for fun.  I think there’s a very strong chance that this winter will look a lot like 1989, which was a cold one.  If I had to pick any of the parameters above, I would say the strongest one is the cold signal.

In terms of precip, it’s hard to predict a snowy winter any year, but especially in a drought year.  Bottom line, I think we’ll see a cold and somewhat dry winter, with a few winter weather threats for north and central Alabama.

Again, I should note that these predictions aren’t worth the (blog paper???) they are writt….er, typed, on.

* Writing from the north shore of Lake Ponchartrain…

In Covington, Louisiana for a close friend’s wedding.  The groom is John Walker, a meteorologist/researcher at the University of Alabama-Huntsville.  John and I went to Mississippi State together, graduated the same year, and then spent some time at the Univ. of South Alabama as well.  We’ve chased hurricanes, snow storms, tornadoes, and pretty girls together - at least one of those chasing quests will have to subside after today.

John is marrying a very classy lady, Jennifer Couret.  John is a rabid Alabama fan; while Jennifer is a dyed-in-the-wool LSU Bayou Bengal from birth.  Should make for some interesting Novembers around their household in the years to come.

All joking aside…best wishes to the new bride and groom!

* Meanwhile, Back Home… Got this picture in the ol’ e-mail inbox today - it was cold enough to MAKE some snow over in Opelika this morning….Looks like a blast!

* Interesting…. Here’s a press release from Governor Bob Riley’s office this morning.  It concerns the ongoing “water wars” between Alabama, Georgia and Florida:

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U.S. Justice Department Opposes Georgia Request for U.S. Supreme Court Review in Water War Litigation; Agrees that Ruling in Favor of Alabama and Florida Should Stand

The U.S. Justice Department has filed a brief opposing Georgia’s request for review by the U.S. Supreme Court of a key decision in the water war litigation.  Earlier this year, the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals in Washington declared illegal a settlement agreement between Georgia and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers that would have reallocated a significant portion of Lake Lanier for Atlanta’s water supply.  The appellate court ruled that such a major operational change at Lake Lanier could not be undertaken without congressional approval.

That appellate decision represented a critical victory for Alabama and Florida in the 18-year old water war litigation.  Georgia had based its future water supply plans for Atlanta on the illegal settlement agreement.

In August, Georgia filed a petition asking the U.S. Supreme Court to review the appellate court’s decision.  The U.S. Justice Department late last week notified the Supreme Court that the federal government opposes any further review of the decision.

In other words, the federal government believes that the ruling in Alabama and Florida’s favor should stand.

In its brief to the Supreme Court, the Justice Department described as “incorrect” Georgia’s contention that Alabama and Florida lacked standing to challenge the illegal settlement agreement.  The Justice Department also stated that the appellate court’s decision “does not present a question of substantial importance requiring [the Supreme Court’s] review.”

“The federal government has accepted the appellate court’s ruling that the secret agreement between Georgia and the Corps of Engineers was illegal, and it’s about time for Georgia to accept it as well,” said Alabama Governor Bob Riley.  “The three states’ resources would be much better spent attempting to reach a negotiated solution, now that we know what the law requires.  At some point, Georgia has to face reality.”

Governor Riley also said, “The appellate court’s ruling has significance far beyond this single case.  The same law that caused the appellate court to invalidate Atlanta’s future water supply plans should compel the other courts handling the water war litigation to rule that Atlanta’s current water supply withdrawals are illegal.”

* New Friends… I had a wonderful time visiting with a group out at University Church of Christ on Atlanta Highway.  They were an exceptionally welcoming and hospitable group - we talked about weather, global warming, and all sorts of fun stuff.  And the food was phenomenal!  A big thanks to the group there for having me.

* Chilly Temps… My low temperature forecast from yesterday was off by several degrees because of the wind.  The wind stayed up, thus, the temperature also stayed up a few degrees.  But, that same wind will make it feel quite chilly today.  High temperatures, optimistically, will reach the lower 50s in central and south Alabama.  Areas north of U.S. 82 might stay in the upper 40s all day, with a strong north wind of 10-20mph making it feel even colder.

Lows tonight will fall into the 20s, and we will be at or below freezing for 6-8 hours.  So, if you have agricultural interests, be forewarned - this will be a hard freeze.

The cool weather will hang around for a while, as highs through the rest of the week will bounce back and forth between the middle 50s and lower 60s.  Low temperatures will be in the 27-35 range, with most mornings near or just above freezing.

* FUN Time at Pump-It-Up! A big THANKS to all of our Sketch the Sky winners for coming out to our monthly party at Pump It Up in Montgomery  yesterday.  Judd Davis and I had a great time visiting with the kids, their parents, and the very friendly staff at Pump It Up.  We also had a great time trying to successfully navigate the obstacle course without maiming ourselves.

After playing our “Today in Alabama” touch football game on Wednesday and then jumping and diving around with the kids out there yesterday…I would say my bump and bruise index is about a 9.1 on a scale to ten.  Feeling sore.  Getting old is no fun!

* Rain Chances… This is a sore subject.  We’ve talked and written here about this being a challenging and complex forecast, and yesterday was a great example.  We forecast cloudy skies and scattered showers.  Neither really happened, as we cleared out through the afternoon hours and actually saw the sun for a while.

Today should bring a better chance of rain - not a heavy, soaking rain - but a few scattered showers and perhaps a storm or two will be involved as well.

More rain and storms are possible tonight, before we dry out tomorrow…

* Speaking of Saturday…. Tomorrow will bring a blast of much colder temperatures to our state.  We’ll see readings steady or falling through the lower to middle 50s tomorrow, with a strong north wind.  Clouds should hang tough all day, and we could deal with a sprinkle or shower before 10am.

* Football Forecast: Kickoff temp around 58 over in Auburn (11:30am, WSFA), falling into the lower 50s by the end of the game.  Cloudy and windy for the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry (Auburn/Georgia).

In Tuscaloosa, ‘Bama hosts Miss. State (6:45pm, ESPN), and the weather will be nothing short of COLD.  Kickoff temp should be in the middle 40s, falling into the 30s during the game.  Factor in a strong north wind, and the cold weather gear will be a must-have for this game!  I’m also forecasting a 700% increase in hot chocolate sales at Bryant-Denny Stadium.

Troy heads to Baton Rouge, and the weather for that one will be chilly as well.  Kickoff temp around 48, falling through the 40s during the second half.  Chilly weather for the Trojans!

* The Setup… What a doozy.  We have a southwesterly flow aloft right now, a notoriously tricky pattern.  Tiny impulses of energy will embed themselves in that southwesterly flow, and those impulses will be enough to kick off showers and storms.  Figuring the timing and placement of these areas of showers and storms will be very tricky.

Meanwhile, at the surface, we have a “wedge” type situation trying to become established - cool, dry air is over in Georgia, and its trying to seep across the state line.  So far, it hasn’t, and I get the idea that our winds will shift to the southeast early enough to negate the easterly flow of cool and dry air into central Alabama.

If all of that wasn’t enough — a strong front will march through the northern Plains late this week and will arrive in Alabama late Friday/early Saturday.

What in the world does all of this mean for our weather?  Here’s my take on how things will evolve:

TONIGHT - One of those embedded impulses is pushing through the Southeast right now - this one will bring us some rain tonight and into early tomorrow.  No severe weather is expected, and the heaviest rain will likely come south of U.S. Highway 80.

TOMORROW - A few showers could linger, but what happens tomorrow depends on how things progress in the Gulf.  If a large complex of storms forms just off the coast, that will block our access to the moisture, and we won’t see much rain.  At this time, that seems quite plausible, so look for only scattered showers and perhaps a storm tomorrow.  Again, we don’t anticipate severe weather.

FRIDAY - Scattered showers and storms seem likely - timing and coverage of the rain on Friday is almost impossible to determine, the models are all over the place with that.  Just plan on some rain and watch the radar on the side of the blog or over at www.wsfa.com.  As the front approaches from the Plains, we’ll see rain chances bump back up Friday night.

SATURDAY - I’m leaving a chance of showers/sprinkles in for early Saturday, as the cold front pushes through the state.  After that occurs, temperatures will remain steady or even fall a few degrees on Saturday afternoon, with overcast skies and an icy north wind of 10-20 mph.  Definitely a cold day for the college football action over the weekend.